Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer
Editor’s note: NFL analyst Warren Sharp has joined FOX Sports for the 2022 NFL season. Throughout the year, he analyzes his top games of the week and predicts the numbers that will give him a betting edge.
To prepare for the start of the season, Warren’s 2022 Football Preview (Available at Sharpfootballanalysis.com). In this article, we break down his 10 most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL by goal percentage and culls the top 10 passers by this metric from Warren’s guide.
No. 1: Joe Burrow
Burrow’s promotion to a top 10 quarterback lays a strong foundation for the Bengals’ future. Cincinnati’s offensive he averaged .29 EPA (expected extra points) per dropback when his line fielded Burrow for at least his 2.5 seconds. This is his second highest rating in the league. With a more complete support for his cast, Burrow has his MVP potential.
Burrow stands out under pressure and has been in the top three for years for aggressiveness. So not only is he willing to throw the ball through tight windows, but he can also throw it with great accuracy. he seems to be getting better His overall accuracy rate is up by just 3% compared to last season and he was in 2020, but Red’s accuracy rate in his zone is up from 69% where he was in 2020. In 2021, he’ll jump to 82%, placing him second in the NFL.
No. 2: Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray got off to a head start to the season, but the mobile quarterback struggled with an ankle injury. Before the injury, the offense ranked him third in the league with 0.16 EPA/play and second with 0.29 EPA/dropback. Both numbers dropped significantly after his 8 weeks as the offense managed 0.01 EPA/play and 0.05 EPA/dropback. If the Cardinals’ QB can stay healthy, the offense could make him one of the top units in the league.
Murray has improved in all three seasons in the league.His yards per pass attempt, completion percentage, yards per completion, touchdown percentage, and rating quotient have all increased year after year of his career.
Kyler Murray surpasses Russell Wilson in the top 100
The NFL players were voted out and Colin Cowherd was surprised to see Arizona QB Kyler Murray land ahead of Denver’s Russell Wilson on the Top 100 list.
3: Derek Carr
Last season, Kerr averaged -0.36 EPA/attempt under pressure, a 32% completion rate, a 6.8 YPA (yards per attempt), and a 54% completion rate.
No Pressure: 0.22 EPA/Attempt, 53% Success Rate, 8.1 YPA, and 75% Completion Rate Amazingly, though these numbers look terrible, they’re actually pretty average for the NFL. That’s why it’s so important not to put pressure on the quarterback.
With an improved receiving force, it’s only natural to expect Kerr to replicate the best performance of a memorable 2016 season.
No. 4: Kirk Cousins
Cousins had the fourth-lowest percentage of inaccurate passes and a better-than-expected success rate for 2021. The Vikings offense also benefits from Cousins’ ability to avoid mistakes as he has the fourth-lowest percentage of dropbacks leading to sacks or interceptions. The new head his coach could help this offense become a top 10 unit.
There is a strong consensus that the Vikings’ QB is slightly above average, but not the top tier of quarterbacks. As always, with a good supporting cast he can be productive, but he’s probably not the type to lead a team to victory.
No. 5: Justin Herbert
Herbert is the first player in NFL history to start his career with 30 touchdown passes in his first two seasons. One area where Herbert and the Chargers’ offense can still expand is on the outside. Herbert ranked him 19th in average depth of target (7.6 yards), but Keenan is the primary target of Allen and Austin Ekeler, who Hogg operates at a shallow to moderate level of defense. It may remain compressed because
Of Herbert’s 149 dropbacks on early downs in the first three quarters last year, 77 (52%) were thrown within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Look at the split:
Less than 5 air yards: -0.01 EPA/attempt, 36% success rate, 4.9 YPA over 77 attempts
5-30 air yards: 0.39 EPA/attempt, 64% success rate, 10.6 YPA over 55 attempts
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No. 6: Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill averaged 0.18 EPA/dropback with Derrick Henry on the field, but -0.04 EPA/dropback without him. Defense considering Henry is overwhelmingly important to the passing offense.
After 7.7% and 6.9% touchdown rates in 2019-20, Tannehill’s touchdown rate was just 4.0% a year ago. His QB for the Titans threw for just 7.0 Y/A in 2021 after he passed for 9.6 yards and he passed for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Even his 2.6% interception rate has retreated from his 2.1% and his 1.5% rates.
No. 7: Matt Ryan
When Ryan was kept clean in his pocket, he generated +1 EPA or more on 27% of dropbacks, ranking 13th. This demonstrates the strong performance levels behind the superior offensive line that the Colts can offer.
Of the 33 quarterbacks with 400 or more attempts in the last two years, Ryan ranked 7th in accuracy and Carson Wentz ranked 32nd in passes other than play action.
Not only was Ryan generally more accurate, but he was far more accurate when throwing deep, ranking third in passes thrown 10 yards or more downfield, while Wentz ranked 31st.
Ryan was fourth best in passes where quarterbacks were not under pressure, with only 6.3% of passes completed due to inaccurate passes, while Wentz was last in the league with 12.7%. It was nearby.
No. 8: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa had improved across the board from rookie numbers, but still suffered from working in a sub-optimal environment. His QB for the Dolphins worked behind the worst offensive line in the league, ranking lowest in ESPN’s pass block wins his rate and lowest in his focus grade in professional football.
Last season, Tua led the NFL in accuracy in early downs when not under pressure. His accuracy helped him and the Dolphins a lot in the red zone. He had his highest NFL success percentage inside the red zone, and even excluding his play runs, he was ranked second in his passes alone in the red zone. And all this was done with broken ribs and a broken throwing finger, among all other limitations of the 2021 Dolphins’ offense.
So where does Tua need to improve? His rank has dropped to third place year after year.
2020: 36th in EPA/Attempt, 35th in Success Rate, 36th in YPA (yards per attempt).
2021: 25th in EPA/att, 20th in success rate, 28th in YPA
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The good news is that 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo ranked sixth in down conversion percentage last season, along with Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator. In fact, Jimmy G ranks fourth in his third-down conversion rate for the past four years combined. We have found Tua to be very accurate. But imagine what the Dolphins offense could do with a better offensive design on the third down.
No. 9: Jared Goff
Jared Goff’s game is limited, proving he hits 6.3 air yards on a single pass. Goff said he attempted 25.2% of passes over 10 yards, the lowest percentage in the league. The previous No. 1 overall pick doesn’t make a difference in the elite and the team will need to continue their game plan around him.
Goff ranked 16th in EPA per dropback when kept clean by the Lions for at least 2.5 seconds.
When Goff tried to pass from 11 against the light box, he was terrible. But when a defender was trying to stop a run with a heavier box, he was exceptional.
No. 10: Dak Prescott
Prescott is still a top 10 quarterback. His ability to handle pressure sets the ceiling high for his work. Prescott’s adjusted net yards per attempt (4.8) while facing pressure ranked him second in the league. In dropping back against pressure, Prescott also had the eighth-lowest rate of sacking.
Before Prescott’s calf injury, the offense averaged 6.57 yards/play and 0.22 EPA/dropback, which dropped significantly to 5.67 yards/play and 0.05 EPA/dropback after the injury.
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