Last week we developed an algorithm to predict the first four drivers to be knocked out of the playoffs. He has to wait two races before evaluating how well the algorithm worked, so let’s try another method.
Predict the contenders for today’s Cup playoff race a Kansas Speedway (3pm ET on USA Network).
Predict Kansas with only one Kansas race
Picking a driver based solely on the Kansas race in May doesn’t give very solid results. As such, we will be adding some comparable tracks that are already hosting races this year.
The track that most resembles Kansas is the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Both are 1.5 miles of his D-shaped track with low tire wear. Kansas banks range from 17 degrees to 20 degrees, while Las Vegas has a progressive bank from 18 degrees to 20 degrees.
Another track is the Michigan International Speedway. Kansas and Michigan have the same shape and level of tire wear. The length varies, but it’s only half a mile. Michigan’s corner bank is 18 degrees for him, similar to the Kansas turn.
This leaves the sample data for the May Kansas Race, Michigan, and Las Vegas.
We weighted the Kansas data to be equal to the other two tracks combined. It’s basically Kansas twice, Michigan and Las Vegas once, then divided by four. When referring to the average finishing position or average running position of a dataset, Weighted average.
We developed the algorithm using the same techniques described previously, but with a little more emphasis on winning here. We used the driver’s average finish from the last five races to capture the momentum. For reference, all drivers but one have averaged 10th or lower in the last five races.
Top 3 Candidates
It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Kyle Larson at the top of my list. The graph of weighted final positions below shows that his average final position is his 3.25. This is half the average finishing position of the second-placed driver, Martin Truex Jr.
Larson enters Kansas confidently but realistic about the level of competition he expects from Toyota.
“I’m sure they’ll take pole,” Larson said. “I’m sure they will be out hunting all race long. It will be tough, but they can definitely beat them.”
Larson is one of only three drivers to achieve top ten finishes at all three tracks. His other two are He Truex and Alex Bowman. Larson did not win any of the three races, but in May at Kansas the eventual winner Kurt He put up a hard-fought battle with Busch. He also led his 7.6% of all laps performed at these three tracks this year.
Drivers 2 and 3 are well behind Larson, but are very close to each other.
Christopher Bell had a DNF at Michigan, but still maintained his fifth-best starting average in that race. Bell said in his 2022 he led his 13.5% of the laps at three tracks, which was his second highest total among drivers. And he is one of his two drivers to lead laps at all three tracks this year.
Denny Hamlin has the second best result in the last five races with an average of 10.8. This put him at his number three spot on Kansas’ predicted list. Despite failing to finish the Las Vegas race due to drivetrain problems, Hamlin led 9.3% of his possible laps in the three qualifying races.
Last of Top 6 Kansas Predictions
The final three drivers are tightly grouped in scoring, but below Bell and Hamlin.
Ross Chastain finished fourth. He leads the most laps (15.7%) of any driver in a sample of three tracks. He also led each of the three races we are reviewing.Bell is the only other driver to do so.
“It’s pretty wild that our victory didn’t come on the 1.5-mile track,” Chastain said.
Strongest or not, Chastain doesn’t rank high on the list with an average finish of 23.2 over the last five races. This is the worst of the top 9 drivers identified by the algorithm.
Las Vegas winner Alex Bowman finished fifth with an average of 7.0. He has had a string of his P30+ finishes mid-season, but his average finish over the last five races is his 13.4. He is also one of his three drivers to achieve top ten finishes in all three of his races in the sample.
Number six on my list is Kevin Harvick. Aside from the win in Michigan, he doesn’t have a single stat that stands out like other drivers. Solid numbers on all metrics. If he can turn last week’s frustration into a strong run, he might cement his place in his round of the playoffs next Sunday (3 p.m. ET).
Other drivers
With the 2nd highest finish average on the sample track, why is Truex ranked 7th? He only led one lap between all three tracks. But if you’re looking for a top 10 driver, he’s a solid choice.
Joey Logano is doing well with the highest average (5.8) in the last five races. However, his average final position on these tracks is his 13.0, with a lead of 0 laps for him.
After a disappointing 36th place finish at Darlington, Chase Elliott averaged 19.5 finishes across three comparable tracks this year.
Chase Briscoe and Daniel Suárez have average finishes of 25.8 and 32.0 respectively. Suárez has shown improvement since his win at Sonoma, but his average finishing position over the last five races still sits at his 18.2nd.
Kansas Predict Playoff Tires
Goodyear continues to develop the next generation of 18 inch tires. As the team has learned a lot about the car during the season, so have the tire engineers.
They changed the Kansas construction and tread compound compared to the May race.
Texas and Las Vegas will use the same tire code. So in addition to points, the team will be scrambling to collect tire data to give them an edge in the fourth and his seventh playoff race.
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